Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
